THE BLACK SWAN by Nissim Nicholas Taleb (TR) 黑天鹅

THE BLACK SWAN by Nissim Nicholas Taleb (TR) 黑天鹅

作者: Nassim/Nicholas/Taleb
ISBN: 9780812979183
出版社: RandomHouse
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Fou hunded yeas ago, Fancis Bacon waned that ou minds ae wied to deceive us. "Bewae the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkes most easily fall--they ae theeal distoting pisms of human natue." Chief among them: "Assuming moe ode than exists in chaotic natue." Now conside the typical stock maketepot: "Today investosid shaes down out of concen ove Ianian oil poduction." Sigh. We'e still doing it. Ouains ae wied fo naative, not statistical uncetainty. And so we tell ouselves simple stoies to explain complex thing we don't--and, most impotantly, can't--know. The tuth is that we have no idea why stock makets go up o down on any given day, and whateveeason we give is sue toe gossly simplified, if not flat out wong. Nassim Nicholas Tale fist made this agument in Fooledy Randomness, an e...


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